Prediction of Reservoir-induced Earthquake Based on Fuzzy Theory

With more and more reservoirs have been and are being built all over the world, reservoir-induced earthquake has received a great deal of attention from geoscientists mainly because of its potential to damage constructions and to cause human losses. Based on the previous researches on the environmental conditions of reservoir-induced earthquake, a criteria hierarchy model has been constructed. We give the environmental condition an uncertain description by applying weight in this theory, which shows that the different factor plays different role in risk assessment. Taking one candidate assessment unit into consideration, the risk class through fuzzy theory is obtained. Based on the original mechanism, a fuzzy mathematical prediction model of three-gorge reservoir in China has been created. It is concluded that compared with other mathematical prediction models, the reservoirinduced earthquake prediction model based on the fuzzy theory can analyze data with fuzzy processing and therefore possesses advantages of high prediction accuracy.